Recovery with a Human Face
  • E-Discussion 2010-
  • About this e-discussion
  • Books
  • Recent Articles
  • Contact

Recovery with a Human Face

A discussion on alternatives for a socially-responsive crisis recovery
 

May 14th, 2015

5/14/2015

 
Dear Rathin,

At the Centre for Advanced Financial Research and Learning, the  RBI, with a research associate in 2013, we tried to develop a tool for forecasting the economic cycles of India based on the well-known term structure slope analysis using wavelets in a duration model frame work. It used to work fine. There was nothing political in what we did. It was purely technical. Not that our forecasting tool was perfect, but it worked fine based on back testing, which does not mean that it would work going forward. My point is that it may be possible to develop tools to project growth purely statistically, at least, direction-wise, with no politics or explanation involved. Whether you buy the forecast or not is, of course, your subjective decision. But a simpler version of the tool worked for many advanced capitalist countries prior to their pegging the short end of the term structure to zero. Our wavelet decomposition was a way around. I would be happy to put you in touch with my former research associate, if you have any interest.

Best regards,

Sabri Oncu
Former Head of Research, CAFRAL, RBI


Comments are closed.

    This e-discussion is ongoing by email Apologies if late updates on this website...


    Moderator
    

    Isabel Ortiz
    Director Social Protection ILO

    Picture
    Follow on Twitter 
    To join this e-discussion, send an email to: sympa@socpro.list.ilo.org
    with SUBSCRIBE recoveryhumanface in the subject 

    Archives

    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013

    Categories

    All


    This e-discussion is intended to facilitate the exchange of knowledge and to
    stimulate discussion; 
    the interpretations and p
    ositions expressed by contributors do not reflect the policies of ILO. 

    “We, the Peoples” are the first words of the UN Charter. The UN was founded in 1945 and
    mandated to respond to the needs and rights of all persons, in every country of the world. In this spirit of social justice, a real world recovery means a recovery for all
    persons, not simply the recovery of a few economic indicators and
    companies.

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.