Recovery with a Human Face
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Recovery with a Human Face

A discussion on alternatives for a socially-responsive crisis recovery
 

May 15th, 2015

5/15/2015

 
Richard  -- The  national institutions (government, Central Bank)  got it right to within 0.3 per cent 12/14 years. The standard error of the NIPFP and NCAER forecasts (vs actuals)  is close to half that of the BWis/ADB Both instiutions place their modeling frameworks in the public domain

Anis -- Thanks for this update, very useful. Yes, the politics of global growth projections are also horribly flawed. Here, the IMF WB and OECD follow the markets.. when their forecasts lie outside market confidence intervals they kowtow to current "wisdom" throwing professional or analytical  judgments out of the window . The result is what you describe, but the pusillanimity ion the face or financial market "wisdom" -- whether exuberance or pessimism -- imposes costs on developing countries.

We need to work on this as a group, in my view. This politics is central to adjustment with a human face.

Rathin

Rathin Roy

Director 
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP)
and
Member, Seventh Central Pay Commission
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg
Special Institutional Area
New Delhi - 110 067
Ph: 91-11-26857274; Fax: 26512703
 www.nipfp.org.in


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