Richard -- The national institutions (government, Central Bank) got it right to within 0.3 per cent 12/14 years. The standard error of the NIPFP and NCAER forecasts (vs actuals) is close to half that of the BWis/ADB Both instiutions place their modeling frameworks in the public domain
Anis -- Thanks for this update, very useful. Yes, the politics of global growth projections are also horribly flawed. Here, the IMF WB and OECD follow the markets.. when their forecasts lie outside market confidence intervals they kowtow to current "wisdom" throwing professional or analytical judgments out of the window . The result is what you describe, but the pusillanimity ion the face or financial market "wisdom" -- whether exuberance or pessimism -- imposes costs on developing countries.
We need to work on this as a group, in my view. This politics is central to adjustment with a human face.
Rathin
Rathin Roy
Director
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP)
and
Member, Seventh Central Pay Commission
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg
Special Institutional Area
New Delhi - 110 067
Ph: 91-11-26857274; Fax: 26512703
www.nipfp.org.in
Anis -- Thanks for this update, very useful. Yes, the politics of global growth projections are also horribly flawed. Here, the IMF WB and OECD follow the markets.. when their forecasts lie outside market confidence intervals they kowtow to current "wisdom" throwing professional or analytical judgments out of the window . The result is what you describe, but the pusillanimity ion the face or financial market "wisdom" -- whether exuberance or pessimism -- imposes costs on developing countries.
We need to work on this as a group, in my view. This politics is central to adjustment with a human face.
Rathin
Rathin Roy
Director
National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP)
and
Member, Seventh Central Pay Commission
18/2 Satsang Vihar Marg
Special Institutional Area
New Delhi - 110 067
Ph: 91-11-26857274; Fax: 26512703
www.nipfp.org.in
